Daily Papers

Generative models aim to simulate realistic effects of various actions across different contexts, from text generation to visual effects. Despite significant efforts to build real-world simulators, the application of generative models to virtual worlds, like financial markets, remains under-explored. In financial markets, generative models can simulate complex market effects of participants with various behaviors, enabling interaction under different market conditions, and training strategies without financial risk. This simulation relies on the finest structured data in financial market like orders thus building the finest realistic simulation. We propose Large Market Model (LMM), an order-level generative foundation model, for financial market simulation, akin to language modeling in the digital world. Our financial Market Simulation engine (MarS), powered by LMM, addresses the domain-specific need for realistic, interactive and controllable order generation. Key observations include LMM's strong scalability across data size and model complexity, and MarS's robust and practicable realism in controlled generation with market impact. We showcase MarS as a forecast tool, detection system, analysis platform, and agent training environment, thus demonstrating MarS's "paradigm shift" potential for a variety of financial applications. We release the code of MarS at https://github.com/microsoft/MarS/.

Understanding Quantum Technologies 2025 is the 8th update of a free open science ebook that provides a 360 degrees overview of quantum technologies from science and technology to geopolitical and societal issues. It covers quantum physics history, quantum physics 101, gate-based quantum computing, quantum computing engineering (including quantum error corrections, quantum computing energetics and a new subsection of the effects of the Lieb-Robinson limit), quantum computing hardware (all qubit types, including quantum annealing and quantum simulation paradigms, history, science, research, implementation and vendors scientific and engineering approaches and roadmaps), quantum enabling technologies (cryogenics, control electronics, photonics, components fabs and manufacturing process, raw materials), unconventional computing (potential alternatives to quantum and classical computing), quantum computing algorithms, software development tools, resource estimate and benchmark tools, use case and case studies analysis methodologies, application use cases per market, quantum communications and cryptography (including QKD, PQC and QPU interconnect technologies), quantum sensing, quantum technologies around the world, quantum technologies societal impact and even quantum fake sciences. The main audience are computer science engineers, developers and IT specialists as well as quantum scientists and students who want to acquire a global view of how quantum technologies work, and particularly quantum computing. This version is an update to the 2024, 2023, 2022, and 2021 editions published respectively in October 2024, 2023, 2022 and 2021. An update log is provided at the end of the book.

Financial markets are complex systems characterized by high statistical noise, nonlinearity, and constant evolution. Thus, modeling them is extremely hard. We address the task of generating realistic and responsive Limit Order Book (LOB) market simulations, which are fundamental for calibrating and testing trading strategies, performing market impact experiments, and generating synthetic market data. Previous works lack realism, usefulness, and responsiveness of the generated simulations. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel TRAnsformer-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Engine for LOB Simulations (TRADES). TRADES generates realistic order flows conditioned on the state of the market, leveraging a transformer-based architecture that captures the temporal and spatial characteristics of high-frequency market data. There is a notable absence of quantitative metrics for evaluating generative market simulation models in the literature. To tackle this problem, we adapt the predictive score, a metric measured as an MAE, by training a stock price predictive model on synthetic data and testing it on real data. We compare TRADES with previous works on two stocks, reporting an x3.27 and x3.47 improvement over SoTA according to the predictive score, demonstrating that we generate useful synthetic market data for financial downstream tasks. We assess TRADES's market simulation realism and responsiveness, showing that it effectively learns the conditional data distribution and successfully reacts to an experimental agent, giving sprout to possible calibrations and evaluations of trading strategies and market impact experiments. We developed DeepMarket, the first open-source Python framework for market simulation with deep learning. Our repository includes a synthetic LOB dataset composed of TRADES's generates simulations. We release the code at github.com/LeonardoBerti00/DeepMarket.

Consider a market of competing model providers selling query access to models with varying costs and capabilities. Customers submit problem instances and are willing to pay up to a budget for a verifiable solution. An arbitrageur efficiently allocates inference budget across providers to undercut the market, thus creating a competitive offering with no model-development risk. In this work, we initiate the study of arbitrage in AI model markets, empirically demonstrating the viability of arbitrage and illustrating its economic consequences. We conduct an in-depth case study of SWE-bench GitHub issue resolution using two representative models, GPT-5 mini and DeepSeek v3.2. In this verifiable domain, simple arbitrage strategies generate net profit margins of up to 40%. Robust arbitrage strategies that generalize across different domains remain profitable. Distillation further creates strong arbitrage opportunities, potentially at the expense of the teacher model's revenue. Multiple competing arbitrageurs drive down consumer prices, reducing the marginal revenue of model providers. At the same time, arbitrage reduces market segmentation and facilitates market entry for smaller model providers by enabling earlier revenue capture. Our results suggest that arbitrage can be a powerful force in AI model markets with implications for model development, distillation, and deployment.

Most economic theories typically assume that financial market participants are fully rational individuals and use mathematical models to simulate human behavior in financial markets. However, human behavior is often not entirely rational and is challenging to predict accurately with mathematical models. In this paper, we propose Agent-based Simulated Financial Market (ASFM), which first constructs a simulated stock market with a real order matching system. Then, we propose a large language model based agent as the stock trader, which contains the profile, observation, and tool-learning based action module. The trading agent can comprehensively understand current market dynamics and financial policy information, and make decisions that align with their trading strategy. In the experiments, we first verify that the reactions of our ASFM are consistent with the real stock market in two controllable scenarios. In addition, we also conduct experiments in two popular economics research directions, and we find that conclusions drawn in our \model align with the preliminary findings in economics research. Based on these observations, we believe our proposed ASFM provides a new paradigm for economic research.

The last mile toward enterprise AGI is a company that runs itself. Training and adapting such agents require longitudinal enterprise data, which remain scarce, costly to acquire, and often restricted by privacy constraints. Historical archives are also frequently incomplete and record only what actually happened. They cannot show the outcomes of alternative decisions. We introduce MiniCorp, an office simulator for studying how agents can collectively run a company while generating enterprise data at scale. Using an e-commerce company as a demonstration, MiniCorp connects two interacting worlds. The external world models customers, dynamic competitors, and market mechanisms. The internal world consists of agents that observe events, discuss their options, and make strategic decisions. These decisions have lasting effects on the market, and the resulting feedback informs the firm's later decisions. As the firm and market interact, MiniCorp continuously records the agents' communications and decisions. These records preserve the information available at the time and the business results that followed. Checkpointing allows the same situation to be replayed under different decisions, providing comparisons unavailable in static archives. We evaluate end-to-end fidelity against patterns reported in empirical studies of real markets. These evaluations provide agents with realistic market feedback and reduce the risk that they learn to exploit flaws in the simulator. Our experiments show agents coordinating across roles and adapting their decisions to market feedback. With explicit long-term strategic guidance, they also sustain advertising exploration despite weak early returns. MiniCorp thus provides an environment for studying AI-run companies and a scalable source of longitudinal and counterfactual enterprise data for agent training and evaluation.

The development of embodied agents for complex commercial environments is hindered by a critical gap in existing robotics datasets and benchmarks, which primarily focus on household or tabletop settings with short-horizon tasks. To address this limitation, we introduce MarketGen, a scalable simulation platform with automatic scene generation for complex supermarket environments. MarketGen features a novel agent-based Procedural Content Generation (PCG) framework. It uniquely supports multi-modal inputs (text and reference images) and integrates real-world design principles to automatically generate complete, structured, and realistic supermarkets. We also provide an extensive and diverse 3D asset library with a total of 1100+ supermarket goods and parameterized facilities assets. Building on this generative foundation, we propose a novel benchmark for assessing supermarket agents, featuring two daily tasks in a supermarket: (1) Checkout Unloading: long-horizon tabletop tasks for cashier agents, and (2) In-Aisle Item Collection: complex mobile manipulation tasks for salesperson agents. We validate our platform and benchmark through extensive experiments, including the deployment of a modular agent system and successful sim-to-real transfer. MarketGen provides a comprehensive framework to accelerate research in embodied AI for complex commercial applications.

The deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) as autonomous economic agents introduces systemic risks that extend beyond individual capability failures. As agents transition to directly interacting with marketplaces, their collective behavior can amplify volatility and mask deception at scale. We introduce the Agent Bazaar, a multi-agent simulation framework for evaluating Economic Alignment, the capacity of agentic systems to preserve market stability and integrity. We identify two failure modes: (1) Algorithmic Instability in a B2C market ("The Crash"), where firms amplify price volatility until the market collapses, and (2) Sybil Deception in a C2C market ("The Lemon Market"), where a single deceptive agent controlling multiple coordinated seller identities floods the market with fraudulent listings, eroding trust and consumer welfare. We evaluate frontier and open-weight models across both scenarios and find that models largely fail to self-regulate, with failure severity varying by model rather than by size. We propose economically aligned harnesses, Stabilizing Firms and Skeptical Guardians, that improve outcomes but remain fragile under harder market conditions. To close this gap, we train agents with REINFORCE++ using an adaptive curriculum, producing a 9B model that outperforms all evaluated frontier and open-weight models. We propose the Economic Alignment Score (EAS), a 4-component scalar metric aggregating stability, integrity, welfare, and profitability, enabling direct cross-model comparison. Our results show that economic alignment is orthogonal to general capability and can be directly trained with targeted RL.

Long-horizon agentic tasks go beyond chaining short tasks over more interaction turns. Their evolving dynamic environments and long-range dependencies require Large Language Models (LLMs) to continually explore, learn from experience, and adapt their policies over thousands of steps. We introduce E-Commerce Bench, the first open-source benchmark that integrates multi-round counterpart negotiation and dynamic events into a year-long business operation. Over a 365-day year, an LLM agent concurrently runs multiple online stores, researching the market, negotiating with suppliers to source inventory, optimizing sales strategies, fulfilling orders, handling returns, and managing cash flow to maximize its end-of-year total assets. To construct a realistic merchant-side operating environment, the product and supplier data are derived from a real e-commerce platform, while a year-long calendar of promotions, natural disasters, and supply-chain shocks continually reshapes demand. For reproducibility, both sides of the market are deterministic: customer purchases and returns follow a fixed demand model, while a negotiation kernel determines supplier pricing, concessions, and decisions, with an LLM used only to verbalize them. We evaluate 18 frontier models across seven dimensions, including year-end assets, and find that no single model dominates. GPT-5.6 Sol earns the most, growing the 100,000 opening stake into 1,431,425, yet it ranks 16th of 18 on fraud avoidance and trails Fable5 in operational efficiency. Among open-weight models, Qwen3.8-Max-Preview leads with 416,252, 38% above GLM 5.2 (high), and achieves the strongest learning over the horizon, progressively bargaining down prices across repeated orders. Our code is available at https://github.com/QwenLM/E-CommerceBench.

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has shown huge potentials in building financial market simulators recently. However, due to the highly complex and dynamic nature of real-world markets, raw historical financial data often involve large noise and may not reflect the future of markets, degrading the fidelity of DRL-based market simulators. Moreover, the accuracy of DRL-based market simulators heavily relies on numerous and diverse DRL agents, which increases demand for a universe of market environments and imposes a challenge on simulation speed. In this paper, we present a FinRL-Meta framework that builds a universe of market environments for data-driven financial reinforcement learning. First, FinRL-Meta separates financial data processing from the design pipeline of DRL-based strategy and provides open-source data engineering tools for financial big data. Second, FinRL-Meta provides hundreds of market environments for various trading tasks. Third, FinRL-Meta enables multiprocessing simulation and training by exploiting thousands of GPU cores. Our codes are available online at https://github.com/AI4Finance-Foundation/FinRL-Meta.

As LLM agents advance, they are increasingly mediating economic decisions, ranging from product discovery to transactions, on behalf of users. Such applications promise benefits but also raise many questions about agent accountability and value for users. Addressing these questions requires understanding how agents behave in realistic market conditions. However, previous research has largely evaluated agents in constrained settings, such as single-task marketplaces (e.g., negotiation) or structured two-agent interactions. Real-world markets are fundamentally different: they require agents to handle diverse economic activities and coordinate within large, dynamic ecosystems where multiple agents with opaque behaviors may engage in open-ended dialogues. To bridge this gap, we investigate two-sided agentic marketplaces where Assistant agents represent consumers and Service agents represent competing businesses. To study these interactions safely, we develop Magentic-Marketplace-- a simulated environment where Assistants and Services can operate. This environment enables us to study key market dynamics: the utility agents achieve, behavioral biases, vulnerability to manipulation, and how search mechanisms shape market outcomes. Our experiments show that frontier models can approach optimal welfare-- but only under ideal search conditions. Performance degrades sharply with scale, and all models exhibit severe first-proposal bias, creating 10-30x advantages for response speed over quality. These findings reveal how behaviors emerge across market conditions, informing the design of fair and efficient agentic marketplaces.

Online marketplaces will be transformed by autonomous AI agents acting on behalf of consumers. Rather than humans browsing and clicking, vision-language-model (VLM) agents can parse webpages, evaluate products, and transact. This raises a fundamental question: what do AI agents buy, and why? We develop ACES, a sandbox environment that pairs a platform-agnostic VLM agent with a fully programmable mock marketplace to study this question. We first conduct basic rationality checks in the context of simple tasks, and then, by randomizing product positions, prices, ratings, reviews, sponsored tags, and platform endorsements, we obtain causal estimates of how frontier VLMs actually shop. Models show strong but heterogeneous position effects: all favor the top row, yet different models prefer different columns, undermining the assumption of a universal "top" rank. They penalize sponsored tags and reward endorsements. Sensitivities to price, ratings, and reviews are directionally human-like but vary sharply in magnitude across models. Motivated by scenarios where sellers use AI agents to optimize product listings, we show that a seller-side agent that makes minor tweaks to product descriptions, targeting AI buyer preferences, can deliver substantial market-share gains if AI-mediated shopping dominates. We also find that modal product choices can differ across models and, in some cases, demand may concentrate on a few select products, raising competition questions. Together, our results illuminate how AI agents may behave in e-commerce settings and surface concrete seller strategy, platform design, and regulatory questions in an AI-mediated ecosystem.

Foundation models have transformed domains from language to genomics by learning general-purpose representations from large-scale, heterogeneous data. We introduce TradeFM, a 524M-parameter generative Transformer that brings this paradigm to market microstructure, learning directly from billions of trade events across >9K equities. To enable cross-asset generalization, we develop scale-invariant features and a universal tokenization scheme that map the heterogeneous, multi-modal event stream of order flow into a unified discrete sequence -- eliminating asset-specific calibration. Integrated with a deterministic market simulator, TradeFM-generated rollouts reproduce key stylized facts of financial returns, including heavy tails, volatility clustering, and absence of return autocorrelation. Quantitatively, TradeFM achieves 2-3x lower distributional error than Compound Hawkes baselines and generalizes zero-shot to geographically out-of-distribution APAC markets with moderate perplexity degradation. Together, these results suggest that scale-invariant trade representations capture transferable structure in market microstructure, opening a path toward synthetic data generation, stress testing, and learning-based trading agents.

Economic World Models (EWMs) are generative economic models that simulate how economies evolve from within by modeling heterogeneous agents, their beliefs and actions, and the market and institutional mechanisms through which their interactions produce aggregate outcomes. This paper develops an implementation roadmap for building economic world models as generative engines in which heterogeneous agents act, interact, adapt, and co-evolve with markets and institutions, thereby producing economic dynamics from the inside. We organize EWM systems into a six-level capability ladder, from fixed rule-based agent worlds to adaptive and LLM-based agent worlds, self-evolving agents, evolving institutional worlds, and sim-to-real economic twins aligned with real observations. A systematic literature survey across these levels reveals that existing work remains concentrated in lower-level agent and simulation environments, while systems with self-evolving agents, endogenous institutions, persistent empirical alignment, and validated economic mechanisms remain rare. By translating the EWM agenda into an implementation blueprint, this paper aims to accelerate the development of the next generation of economic simulation environments that can serve as high-fidelity sandboxes for human decision-makers and as training, planning, evaluation, and safety substrates for AI agents. We release a curated paper list and related resources to support future research.

Can AI Agents simulate real-world trading environments to investigate the impact of external factors on stock trading activities (e.g., macroeconomics, policy changes, company fundamentals, and global events)? These factors, which frequently influence trading behaviors, are critical elements in the quest for maximizing investors' profits. Our work attempts to solve this problem through large language model based agents. We have developed a multi-agent AI system called StockAgent, driven by LLMs, designed to simulate investors' trading behaviors in response to the real stock market. The StockAgent allows users to evaluate the impact of different external factors on investor trading and to analyze trading behavior and profitability effects. Additionally, StockAgent avoids the test set leakage issue present in existing trading simulation systems based on AI Agents. Specifically, it prevents the model from leveraging prior knowledge it may have acquired related to the test data. We evaluate different LLMs under the framework of StockAgent in a stock trading environment that closely resembles real-world conditions. The experimental results demonstrate the impact of key external factors on stock market trading, including trading behavior and stock price fluctuation rules. This research explores the study of agents' free trading gaps in the context of no prior knowledge related to market data. The patterns identified through StockAgent simulations provide valuable insights for LLM-based investment advice and stock recommendation. The code is available at https://github.com/MingyuJ666/Stockagent.

Realistic market impact is essential for generative limit order book (LOB) models to serve as world models for trading agents. If a simulator misprices this mechanism, agents learn policies that are optimal in the simulator but wrong in the real market. Existing metrics assess generated streams purely through distributional comparison with historical data, leaving counterfactual response to an agent's own orders largely unexplored. Here, we show that market impact emerges naturally in neural LOB generators trained solely for next-token prediction. We inject execution-style metaorders into the generated message flow of five autoregressive models across five NASDAQ stocks and measure the response using estimators from the empirical impact literature, validated on baselines whose physics is known in advance. Our benchmark evaluates any message-level generator in three phases: free generation (reading order-flow persistence against price diffusivity); metaorder injection (yielding the impact law's exponent and amplitude); and a post-execution window (measuring relaxation). In addition, comparing each visible injection to a blind, simulator-only control isolates the model's learned response from standard book mechanics. For every model on every stock, we measure how the impact responds as a function of cumulative metaorder participation. Interestingly, we observe emergent impact in generative models of market data, with exponents in the range of 0.63 to 1.21, slightly above the traditional 0.5 of the square-root law of impact. In the family of models tested, we are so far unable to observe impact decay during relaxation. We tentatively attribute this to the still-short context windows of the models. We release the benchmark as open source to validate future generative models for market data.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) are transforming the domain of Quantitative Trading (QT) through the deployment of advanced algorithms capable of sifting through extensive financial datasets to pinpoint lucrative investment openings. AI-driven models, particularly those employing ML techniques such as deep learning and reinforcement learning, have shown great prowess in predicting market trends and executing trades at a speed and accuracy that far surpass human capabilities. Its capacity to automate critical tasks, such as discerning market conditions and executing trading strategies, has been pivotal. However, persistent challenges exist in current QT methods, especially in effectively handling noisy and high-frequency financial data. Striking a balance between exploration and exploitation poses another challenge for AI-driven trading agents. To surmount these hurdles, our proposed solution, QTNet, introduces an adaptive trading model that autonomously formulates QT strategies through an intelligent trading agent. Incorporating deep reinforcement learning (DRL) with imitative learning methodologies, we bolster the proficiency of our model. To tackle the challenges posed by volatile financial datasets, we conceptualize the QT mechanism within the framework of a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). Moreover, by embedding imitative learning, the model can capitalize on traditional trading tactics, nurturing a balanced synergy between discovery and utilization. For a more realistic simulation, our trading agent undergoes training using minute-frequency data sourced from the live financial market. Experimental findings underscore the model's proficiency in extracting robust market features and its adaptability to diverse market conditions.

Evaluating retail strategies before deployment is difficult, as outcomes are determined across multiple stages, from seller-side persuasion through buyer-seller interaction to purchase decisions. However, existing retail simulators capture only partial aspects of this process and do not model cross-stage dependencies, making it difficult to assess how early decisions affect downstream outcomes. We present RetailSim, an end-to-end retail simulation framework that models this pipeline in a unified environment, explicitly designed for simulation fidelity through diverse product spaces, persona-driven agents, and multi-turn interactions. We evaluate RetailSim with a dual protocol comprising human evaluation of behavioral fidelity and meta-evaluation against real-world economic regularities, showing that it successfully reproduces key patterns such as demographic purchasing behavior, the price-demand relationship, and heterogeneous price elasticity. We further demonstrate its practical utility via decision-oriented use cases, including persona inference, seller-buyer interaction analysis, and sales strategy evaluation, showing RetailSim's potential as a controlled testbed for exploring retail strategies.

Prediction markets are used in real life to predict outcomes of interest such as presidential elections. This paper presents a mathematical theory of artificial prediction markets for supervised learning of conditional probability estimators. The artificial prediction market is a novel method for fusing the prediction information of features or trained classifiers, where the fusion result is the contract price on the possible outcomes. The market can be trained online by updating the participants' budgets using training examples. Inspired by the real prediction markets, the equations that govern the market are derived from simple and reasonable assumptions. Efficient numerical algorithms are presented for solving these equations. The obtained artificial prediction market is shown to be a maximum likelihood estimator. It generalizes linear aggregation, existent in boosting and random forest, as well as logistic regression and some kernel methods. Furthermore, the market mechanism allows the aggregation of specialized classifiers that participate only on specific instances. Experimental comparisons show that the artificial prediction markets often outperform random forest and implicit online learning on synthetic data and real UCI datasets. Moreover, an extensive evaluation for pelvic and abdominal lymph node detection in CT data shows that the prediction market improves adaboost's detection rate from 79.6% to 81.2% at 3 false positives/volume.

AI agents are increasingly transacting on behalf of users -- delegating tasks, spending budgets, and negotiating with unfamiliar counterparties. Unlike human marketplaces, which operate under institutional designs refined over centuries, the rules governing emerging agent marketplaces are being built ad-hoc, and early choices tend to lock in. Understanding what dynamics these rules produce is urgent. We present diagon, a programmable market system serving as a rule-agnostic experimental testbed for institutional design in emerging agent cognitive-labour markets. diagon makes institutional choices experimentally manipulable: heterogeneous tool-using agents post jobs, bid, negotiate, execute, pay, and accumulate reputation, with every mechanism end-to-end observable. We instantiate one market form to demonstrate diagon. We find that market exchange generates more productivity gains over self-sufficient agents, but these gains depend strongly on institutional structure; for example, interventions such as identity transparency and stronger competitive selection can degrade market performance rather than improve it. These findings highlight concrete design requirements for the economic infrastructure of the agent era. Code and data are available at https://github.com/assassin808/diagon.

Although Large Language Model (LLM)-based agents are increasingly used in financial trading, it remains unclear whether they can reason and adapt in live markets, as most studies test models instead of agents, cover limited periods and assets, and rely on unverified data. To address these gaps, we introduce Agent Market Arena (AMA), the first lifelong, real-time benchmark for evaluating LLM-based trading agents across multiple markets. AMA integrates verified trading data, expert-checked news, and diverse agent architectures within a unified trading framework, enabling fair and continuous comparison under real conditions. It implements four agents, including InvestorAgent as a single-agent baseline, TradeAgent and HedgeFundAgent with different risk styles, and DeepFundAgent with memory-based reasoning, and evaluates them across GPT-4o, GPT-4.1, Claude-3.5-haiku, Claude-sonnet-4, and Gemini-2.0-flash. Live experiments on both cryptocurrency and stock markets demonstrate that agent frameworks display markedly distinct behavioral patterns, spanning from aggressive risk-taking to conservative decision-making, whereas model backbones contribute less to outcome variation. AMA thus establishes a foundation for rigorous, reproducible, and continuously evolving evaluation of financial reasoning and trading intelligence in LLM-based agents.

While Large Language Model (LLM) agents have achieved remarkable progress in complex reasoning tasks, evaluating their performance in real-world environments has become a critical problem. Current benchmarks, however, are largely restricted to idealized simulations, failing to address the practical demands of specialized domains like advertising and marketing analytics. In these fields, tasks are inherently more complex, often requiring multi-round interaction with professional marketing tools. To address this gap, we propose AD-Bench, a benchmark designed based on real-world business requirements of advertising and marketing platforms. AD-Bench is constructed from real user marketing analysis requests, with domain experts providing verifiable reference answers and corresponding reference tool-call trajectories. The benchmark categorizes requests into three difficulty levels (L1-L3) to evaluate agents' capabilities under multi-round, multi-tool collaboration. Experiments show that on AD-Bench, Gemini-3-Pro achieves Pass@1 = 68.0% and Pass@3 = 83.0%, but performance drops significantly on L3 to Pass@1 = 49.4% and Pass@3 = 62.1%, with a trajectory coverage of 70.1%, indicating that even state-of-the-art models still exhibit substantial capability gaps in complex advertising and marketing analysis scenarios. AD-Bench provides a realistic benchmark for evaluating and improving advertising marketing agents, the leaderboard and code can be found at https://github.com/Emanual20/adbench-leaderboard.

Auto-bidding plays a crucial role in facilitating online advertising by automatically providing bids for advertisers. Reinforcement learning (RL) has gained popularity for auto-bidding. However, most current RL auto-bidding methods are modeled through the Markovian Decision Process (MDP), which assumes the Markovian state transition. This assumption restricts the ability to perform in long horizon scenarios and makes the model unstable when dealing with highly random online advertising environments. To tackle this issue, this paper introduces AI-Generated Bidding (AIGB), a novel paradigm for auto-bidding through generative modeling. In this paradigm, we propose DiffBid, a conditional diffusion modeling approach for bid generation. DiffBid directly models the correlation between the return and the entire trajectory, effectively avoiding error propagation across time steps in long horizons. Additionally, DiffBid offers a versatile approach for generating trajectories that maximize given targets while adhering to specific constraints. Extensive experiments conducted on the real-world dataset and online A/B test on Alibaba advertising platform demonstrate the effectiveness of DiffBid, achieving 2.81% increase in GMV and 3.36% increase in ROI.

The Internet of Value (IoV) is a heterogeneous, partially-trusted network in which the dominant marginal risk is composite (route, sentiment, liquidity, and the policy a system is willing to commit to) rather than a property of any single chain. We argue that a risk primitive adequate for this regime is a composition of five engines: a prediction engine over price, liquidity, volatility, and route health; a Bittensor verification subnet that decentralises and economically scores prediction outputs; a sentiment-fusion engine over text, on-chain flow, and grey-literature feeds; an agentic engine under constitutional, role-bound action constraints; and an API-risk and scenario engine that converts forecasts into pre-committed action programs in the sense of Monte-Carlo scenario generation. We anchor the architecture in two empirical artefacts: a 27-hour policy-constrained liquidity stress-response experiment on Solana, and a 168-hour prediction-router calibration arc reported with explicit class-imbalance honesty. The case study supports deployability; the validator-loss decomposition is stated formally and is falsifiable.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated strong capabilities as autonomous agents, showing promise in reasoning, tool use, and sequential decision-making. While prior benchmarks have evaluated LLM agents in domains such as software engineering and scientific discovery, the finance domain remains underexplored, despite its direct relevance to economic value and high-stakes decision-making. Existing financial benchmarks primarily test static knowledge through question answering, but they fall short of capturing the dynamic and iterative nature of trading. To address this gap, we introduce StockBench, a contamination-free benchmark designed to evaluate LLM agents in realistic, multi-month stock trading environments. Agents receive daily market signals -- including prices, fundamentals, and news -- and must make sequential buy, sell, or hold decisions. Performance is assessed using financial metrics such as cumulative return, maximum drawdown, and the Sortino ratio. Our evaluation of state-of-the-art proprietary (e.g., GPT-5, Claude-4) and open-weight (e.g., Qwen3, Kimi-K2, GLM-4.5) models shows that while most LLM agents struggle to outperform the simple buy-and-hold baseline, several models demonstrate the potential to deliver higher returns and manage risk more effectively. These findings highlight both the challenges and opportunities in developing LLM-powered financial agents, showing that excelling at static financial knowledge tasks does not necessarily translate into successful trading strategies. We release StockBench as an open-source resource to support reproducibility and advance future research in this domain.

Language models are saturating benchmarks for procedural tasks with narrow objectives. But they are increasingly being deployed in long-horizon, non-stationary environments with open-ended goals. In this paper we introduce KellyBench, an environment for evaluating sequential decision-making in sports betting markets. Agents are placed in a sequential simulation of the 2023-24 English Premier League season and tasked with maximising their long-term bankroll growth. They are given detailed historical data, including advanced statistics, lineups, and public odds. To succeed they must build machine learning models, identify edge in public markets, and adapt as the environment changes over time. We find that all frontier models evaluated lose money on average over the course of the season for five seeds. The best performing model achieves an average return of -8%, and many models experiencing ruin across seeds. To judge strategy sophistication, we use a human expert rubric to grade each model and find their approaches to be unsophisticated compared to human baselines; Claude Opus 4.6 achieves a rubric score of 26.5%, which means there is significant room for improvement. KellyBench is available as an open-access API endpoint at https://openreward.ai/GeneralReasoning/KellyBench.

Quantitative research is an iterative loop: a researcher proposes a market hypothesis, implements it as an executable signal, tests it on historical data, and decides what to keep. Existing benchmarks score formulas, code, or individual trading decisions, leaving open whether large language models (LLMs) can complete this loop and produce strategies that work beyond the research period. We introduce Quant-Arena, a benchmark and public leaderboard for end-to-end quantitative research on real A-share market data. A model constructs features and stock-scoring code, receives feedback only on 2022--2023, and freezes one strategy for assessment on the sealed year 2024. A cash-account evaluator applies trading constraints and costs, including market impact estimated from a simulated order book. Scores are dominated by realized excess return and complemented by signal quality and the diversity of features used by the strategy. We evaluate nine frontier models, among which GPT-6 Astra scores highest; yet no model beats the equal-weight market in 2024. Quant-Arena is open to submissions from any model or agent harness.

We present CommerceGen-Studio, an end-to-end framework for generating commercial-grade main images for e-commerce Stock Keeping Units (SKUs). Our framework is organized along a three-stage pipeline of information extraction, semantic rewriting, and multi-condition generation: Prompt-Eval-Refine-Loop Agent (PERL-Agent) distills heterogeneous SKU metadata into concise selling-point text lists through an iterative closed loop of VLM and LLM roles scored by a reference-free rubric. Layout Thinker Optimization (LTO) aligns the rewriter with both caption and rendered-image quality via alternating domain-specific policy optimization. SKU-DiT, trained under Reinforce-Distill-Reinforce (RDR) progressive training, conditions jointly on the white-background product image, the trademark crop, and the structured layout to hold subject fidelity, trademark integrity, and character-level text accuracy together. The framework runs in production at a scale of millions of main images per day with a latency of a few seconds per image, which we believe makes it among the first systems of this kind to operate at commercial scale. We also release CommerceGen-Bench, a benchmark of hard cases collected from live traffic across all product categories. On it, our framework achieves the highest overall scores among the evaluated open-source baselines on both editing tracks, with and without prompt enhancement. It also matches much larger closed-source models, and beats several of them at Instruction Following and Product Integration - the two properties that determine whether an image can be published.

The study of social emergence has long been a central focus in social science. Traditional modeling approaches, such as rule-based Agent-Based Models (ABMs), struggle to capture the diversity and complexity of human behavior, particularly the irrational factors emphasized in behavioral economics. Recently, large language model (LLM) agents have gained traction as simulation tools for modeling human behavior in social science and role-playing applications. Studies suggest that LLMs can account for cognitive biases, emotional fluctuations, and other non-rational influences, enabling more realistic simulations of socio-economic dynamics. In this work, we introduce TwinMarket, a novel multi-agent framework that leverages LLMs to simulate socio-economic systems. Specifically, we examine how individual behaviors, through interactions and feedback mechanisms, give rise to collective dynamics and emergent phenomena. Through experiments in a simulated stock market environment, we demonstrate how individual actions can trigger group behaviors, leading to emergent outcomes such as financial bubbles and recessions. Our approach provides valuable insights into the complex interplay between individual decision-making and collective socio-economic patterns.

Recent deployments of large language models (LLMs) as autonomous trading agents raise questions about whether financial decision-making competence generalizes beyond specific market patterns and how it should be trained and evaluated in noisy markets lacking ground truth. We propose a structured framework for training and evaluating such models. Central to our approach is a curated, multiple-choice question (MCQ) dataset derived from classic textbooks and historical markets, verified by an AI committee, enriched with structured reasoning traces, and augmented to reduce shortcut learning. To evaluate whether performance on isolated MCQs generalizes to real-world trading, we introduce a two-stage protocol combining test-set evaluation with an MCQ-based chronological trading simulation. Extensive evaluations across market regimes provide statistically robust evidence that open models trained with our framework exhibit competitive, risk-aware behavior over time, outperform open-source baselines, and approach frontier-model performance at smaller scale. We release the dataset and evaluation framework to support further research.

Organizations typically train large models individually. This is costly and time-consuming, particularly for large-scale foundation models. Such vertical production is known to be suboptimal. Inspired by this economic insight, we ask whether it is possible to leverage others' expertise by trading the constituent parts in models, i.e., sets of weights, as if they were market commodities. While recent advances in aligning and interpolating models suggest that doing so may be possible, a number of fundamental questions must be answered to create viable parameter markets. In this work, we address these basic questions, propose a framework containing the infrastructure necessary for market operations to take place, study strategies for exchanging parameters, and offer means for agents to monetize parameters. Excitingly, compared to agents who train siloed models from scratch, we show that it is possible to mutually gain by using the market, even in competitive settings. This suggests that the notion of parameter markets may be a useful paradigm for improving large-scale model training in the future.

We introduce a novel hybrid approach that augments Agent-Based Models (ABMs) with behaviors generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) to simulate human trading interactions. We call our model TraderTalk. Leveraging LLMs trained on extensive human-authored text, we capture detailed and nuanced representations of bilateral conversations in financial trading. Applying this Generative Agent-Based Model (GABM) to government bond markets, we replicate trading decisions between two stylised virtual humans. Our method addresses both structural challenges, such as coordinating turn-taking between realistic LLM-based agents, and design challenges, including the interpretation of LLM outputs by the agent model. By exploring prompt design opportunistically rather than systematically, we enhance the realism of agent interactions without exhaustive overfitting or model reliance. Our approach successfully replicates trade-to-order volume ratios observed in related asset markets, demonstrating the potential of LLM-augmented ABMs in financial simulations

As LLM agents become capable of increasingly long-horizon tasks, evaluating their performance in economic systems is becoming increasingly important. Unlike existing benchmarks that primarily evaluate a single agent interacting with a passive environment, economic systems are inherently multi-agent, requiring autonomous agents to communicate, negotiate, and transact while pursuing their own objectives over extended periods. We introduce CoffeeBench, a benchmark for evaluating LLM agents in a long-horizon multi-agent economy composed of heterogeneous firms. In CoffeeBench, two farmers, two roasters, and two retailers autonomously operate their businesses over a 90-day simulation, each seeking to maximize cumulative net income through communication and transactions while managing cash, inventory, and pricing. The evaluated model controls one coffee roaster, while the remaining firms are controlled by fixed reference agents. Across several recent open-weight and proprietary LLMs, all models outperform a passive baseline that takes no actions, with most achieving positive net income. Analysis of agent behavior reveals substantial differences in long-horizon economic interaction: higher-performing models communicate more actively with other firms, whereas Claude~Haiku~4.5 exhibits an idle-drift failure mode, repeatedly choosing inaction despite producing coherent assessments and plans. We release our code and agent trajectories to support future research.

Generating useful robot-training data requires more than visually plausiblescenes: objects must support interaction, placements must remain physicallyvalid, and tasks must admit repeatable execution. We presentAwomo-SimDataEngine, an agentic system that connects asset and scenegeneration to robot demonstration synthesis. Shared asset services providerigid and articulated objects, including structure-grounded part and jointgeneration with ISArt. Scene generation supports two complementary routes:Unravel reconstructs editable scenes from images, while SimForge buildssingle-room and multi-room environments from text. A graph-native harnesscoordinates construction, validation, andbounded repair, routing failures to the responsible module while retainingunaffected scene state. PolicyForge binds validated worlds to tasks and robotembodiments to produce replayable demonstrations. Evaluations cover assetgeometry, scene quality, and downstream policy learning. On MuJoCo-basedLIBERO-Plus, co-training with Isaac Sim demonstrations improves the overallsuccess rate of a World-Action Model (WAM) from 77.17% to 89.43%. Goal and spatialsuccess improve by 31.66 and 6.25 percentage points, respectively.These results support the utility of the generated data for cross-simulatorpolicy training, with more limited gains on long-horizon tasks.

As the Chinese stock market continues to evolve and its market structure grows increasingly complex, traditional quantitative trading methods are facing escalating challenges. Particularly, due to policy uncertainty and the frequent market fluctuations triggered by sudden economic events, existing models often struggle to accurately predict market dynamics. To address these challenges, this paper introduces Stockformer, a price-volume factor stock selection model that integrates wavelet transformation and a multitask self-attention network, aimed at enhancing responsiveness and predictive accuracy regarding market instabilities. Through discrete wavelet transform, Stockformer decomposes stock returns into high and low frequencies, meticulously capturing long-term market trends and short-term fluctuations, including abrupt events. Moreover, the model incorporates a Dual-Frequency Spatiotemporal Encoder and graph embedding techniques to effectively capture complex temporal and spatial relationships among stocks. Employing a multitask learning strategy, it simultaneously predicts stock returns and directional trends. Experimental results show that Stockformer outperforms existing advanced methods on multiple real stock market datasets. In strategy backtesting, Stockformer consistently demonstrates exceptional stability and reliability across market conditions-whether rising, falling, or fluctuating-particularly maintaining high performance during downturns or volatile periods, indicating a high adaptability to market fluctuations. To foster innovation and collaboration in the financial analysis sector, the Stockformer model's code has been open-sourced and is available on the GitHub repository: https://github.com/Eric991005/Multitask-Stockformer.

Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong performance across benchmarks--from knowledge quizzes and math reasoning to web-agent tasks--but these tests occur in static settings, lacking real dynamics and uncertainty. Consequently, they evaluate isolated reasoning or problem-solving rather than decision-making under uncertainty. To address this, we introduce LiveTradeBench, a live trading environment for evaluating LLM agents in realistic and evolving markets. LiveTradeBench follows three design principles: (i) Live data streaming of market prices and news, eliminating dependence on offline backtesting and preventing information leakage while capturing real-time uncertainty; (ii) a portfolio-management abstraction that extends control from single-asset actions to multi-asset allocation, integrating risk management and cross-asset reasoning; and (iii) multi-market evaluation across structurally distinct environments--U.S. stocks and Polymarket prediction markets--differing in volatility, liquidity, and information flow. At each step, an agent observes prices, news, and its portfolio, then outputs percentage allocations that balance risk and return. Using LiveTradeBench, we run 50-day live evaluations of 21 LLMs across families. Results show that (1) high LMArena scores do not imply superior trading outcomes; (2) models display distinct portfolio styles reflecting risk appetite and reasoning dynamics; and (3) some LLMs effectively leverage live signals to adapt decisions. These findings expose a gap between static evaluation and real-world competence, motivating benchmarks that test sequential decision making and consistency under live uncertainty.

In financial trading, large language model (LLM)-based agents demonstrate significant potential. However, the high sensitivity to market noise undermines the performance of LLM-based trading systems. To address this limitation, we propose a novel multi-agent system featuring an internal competitive mechanism inspired by modern corporate management structures. The system consists of two specialized teams: (1) Data Team - responsible for processing and condensing massive market data into diversified text factors, ensuring they fit the model's constrained context. (2) Research Team - tasked with making parallelized multipath trading decisions based on deep research methods. The core innovation lies in implementing a real-time evaluation and ranking mechanism within each team, driven by authentic market feedback. Each agent's performance undergoes continuous scoring and ranking, with only outputs from top-performing agents being adopted. The design enables the system to adaptively adjust to dynamic environment, enhances robustness against market noise and ultimately delivers superior trading performance. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed system significantly outperforms prevailing multi-agent systems and traditional quantitative investment methods across diverse evaluation metrics. ContestTrade is open-sourced on GitHub at https://github.com/FinStep-AI/ContestTrade.

This paper introduces MarketSenseAI, an innovative framework leveraging GPT-4's advanced reasoning for selecting stocks in financial markets. By integrating Chain of Thought and In-Context Learning, MarketSenseAI analyzes diverse data sources, including market trends, news, fundamentals, and macroeconomic factors, to emulate expert investment decision-making. The development, implementation, and validation of the framework are elaborately discussed, underscoring its capability to generate actionable and interpretable investment signals. A notable feature of this work is employing GPT-4 both as a predictive mechanism and signal evaluator, revealing the significant impact of the AI-generated explanations on signal accuracy, reliability and acceptance. Through empirical testing on the competitive S&P 100 stocks over a 15-month period, MarketSenseAI demonstrated exceptional performance, delivering excess alpha of 10% to 30% and achieving a cumulative return of up to 72% over the period, while maintaining a risk profile comparable to the broader market. Our findings highlight the transformative potential of Large Language Models in financial decision-making, marking a significant leap in integrating generative AI into financial analytics and investment strategies.

The present document delineates the analysis, design, implementation, and benchmarking of various neural network architectures within a short-term frequency prediction system for the foreign exchange market (FOREX). Our aim is to simulate the judgment of the human expert (technical analyst) using a system that responds promptly to changes in market conditions, thus enabling the optimization of short-term trading strategies. We designed and implemented a series of LSTM neural network architectures which are taken as input the exchange rate values and generate the short-term market trend forecasting signal and an ANN custom architecture based on technical analysis indicator simulators We performed a comparative analysis of the results and came to useful conclusions regarding the suitability of each architecture and the cost in terms of time and computational power to implement them. The ANN custom architecture produces better prediction quality with higher sensitivity using fewer resources and spending less time than LSTM architectures. The ANN custom architecture appears to be ideal for use in low-power computing systems and for use cases that need fast decisions with the least possible computational cost.

Sales dialogues require multi-turn, goal-directed persuasion under asymmetric incentives, which makes them a challenging setting for large language models (LLMs). Yet existing dialogue benchmarks rarely measure deal progression and outcomes. We introduce SalesLLM benchmark, a bilingual (ZH/EN) benchmark derived from realistic applications covering Financial Services and Consumer Goods, built from 30,074 scripted configurations and 1,805 curated multi-turn scenarios with controllable difficulty and personas. We propose a fully automatic evaluation pipeline that combines (i) an LLM judge for sales-process progress, and (ii) fine-tuned BERT classifiers for end-of-dialogue buying intent. To improve simulation fidelity, we train a user model, CustomerLM, with SFT and DPO on 8,000+ crowdworker-involved sales conversations, reducing role inversion from 17.44% (GPT-4o) to 8.8%. SalesLLM benchmark scores correlate strongly with human ratings (average Pearson r=0.86; inter-annotator agreement Krippendorff's alpha=0.86, 500 annotations per model). Across 15 mainstream LLMs, in Chinese the strongest models are competitive with typical (junior-to-intermediate) human salespeople -- not with sales experts -- while weaker ones fall below this baseline, and cross-lingual consistency remains poor. SalesLLM benchmark serves as a scalable benchmark for outcome-oriented sales agents. Our code and data are released at https://github.com/Bairong-Xdynamics/Benchmarking-LLM-Realistic-Selling-Skill

Large language model (LLM) simulations of human behavior have the potential to revolutionize the social and behavioral sciences, if and only if they faithfully reflect real human behaviors. Current evaluations are fragmented, based on bespoke tasks and metrics, creating a patchwork of incomparable results. To address this, we introduce SimBench, the first large-scale, standardized benchmark for a robust, reproducible science of LLM simulation. By unifying 20 diverse datasets covering tasks from moral decision-making to economic choice across a large global participant pool, SimBench provides the necessary foundation to ask fundamental questions about when, how, and why LLM simulations succeed or fail. We show that, while even the best LLMs today have limited simulation ability (score: 40.80/100), performance scales log-linearly with model size. Simulation performance is not improved by increased inference-time compute. We demonstrate an alignment-simulation trade-off: instruction-tuning improves performance on low-entropy (consensus) questions but degrades it on high-entropy (diverse) ones. Models particularly struggle when simulating specific demographic groups. Finally, we demonstrate that simulation ability correlates most strongly with deep, knowledge-intensive reasoning (MMLU-Pro, r=0.939). By making progress measurable, we aim to accelerate the development of more faithful LLM simulators.

The use of synthetic data has played a critical role in recent state-of-art breakthroughs. However, overly relying on a single oracle teacher model to generate data has been shown to lead to model collapse and invite propagation of biases. These limitations are particularly evident in multilingual settings, where the absence of a universally effective teacher model that excels across all languages presents significant challenges. In this work, we address these extreme difference by introducing "multilingual arbitrage", which capitalizes on performance variations between multiple models for a given language. To do so, we strategically route samples through a diverse pool of models, each with unique strengths in different languages. Across exhaustive experiments on state-of-art models, our work suggests that arbitrage techniques allow for spectacular gains in performance that far outperform relying on a single teacher. In particular, compared to the best single teacher, we observe gains of up to 56.5% improvement in win rates averaged across all languages when switching to multilingual arbitrage. We observe the most significant gains for the least resourced languages in our pool.

This study develops and empirically validates a Mixture of Experts (MoE) framework for stock price prediction across heterogeneous volatility regimes using real market data. The proposed model combines a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) optimized for high-volatility stocks with a linear regression model tailored to stable equities. A volatility-aware gating mechanism dynamically weights the contributions of each expert based on asset classification. Using a dataset of 30 publicly traded U.S. stocks spanning diverse sectors, the MoE approach consistently outperforms both standalone models. Specifically, it achieves up to 33% improvement in MSE for volatile assets and 28% for stable assets relative to their respective baselines. Stratified evaluation across volatility classes demonstrates the model's ability to adapt complexity to underlying market dynamics. These results confirm that no single model suffices across market regimes and highlight the advantage of adaptive architectures in financial prediction. Future work should explore real-time gate learning, dynamic volatility segmentation, and applications to portfolio optimization.

Understanding and analyzing markets is crucial, yet analytical equilibrium solutions remain largely infeasible. Recent breakthroughs in equilibrium computation rely on zeroth-order policy gradient estimation. These approaches commonly suffer from high variance and are computationally expensive. The use of fully differentiable simulators would enable more efficient gradient estimation. However, the discrete allocation of goods in economic simulations is a non-differentiable operation. This renders the first-order Monte Carlo gradient estimator inapplicable and the learning feedback systematically misleading. We propose a novel smoothing technique that creates a surrogate market game, in which first-order methods can be applied. We provide theoretical bounds on the resulting bias which justifies solving the smoothed game instead. These bounds also allow choosing the smoothing strength a priori such that the resulting estimate has low variance. Furthermore, we validate our approach via numerous empirical experiments. Our method theoretically and empirically outperforms zeroth-order methods in approximation quality and computational efficiency.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being used to simulate human-like decision making in agent-based financial market models (ABMs). As models become more powerful and accessible, researchers can now incorporate individual LLM decisions into ABM environments. However, integration may introduce inherent biases that need careful evaluation. In this paper we test three state-of-the-art GPT models for bias using two model sampling approaches: one-shot and few-shot API queries. We observe significant variations in distributions of outputs between specific models, and model sub versions, with GPT-4o-Mini-2024-07-18 showing notably better performance (32-43% yes responses) compared to GPT-4-0125-preview's extreme bias (98-99% yes responses). We show that sampling methods and model sub-versions significantly impact results: repeated independent API calls produce different distributions compared to batch sampling within a single call. While no current GPT model can simultaneously achieve a uniform distribution and Markovian properties in one-shot testing, few-shot sampling can approach uniform distributions under certain conditions. We explore the Temperature parameter, providing a definition and comparative results. We further compare our results to true random binary series and test specifically for the common human bias of Negative Recency - finding LLMs have a mixed ability to 'beat' humans in this one regard. These findings emphasise the critical importance of careful LLM integration into ABMs for financial markets and more broadly.

Large language model agents are increasingly evaluated as autonomous tool users, yet most benchmarks focus on bounded tasks with immediate success criteria. Real-world deployments often require Long-Term Coherence, the capacity to preserve purposeful behavior across extended horizons while adapting decisions to accumulated evidence. Evaluating this capacity requires a persistent environment in which actions constrain future choices, feedback arrives at heterogeneous delays, and incoherent behavior produces measurable cumulative effects. Seller-side e-commerce provides a suitable setting for this evaluation through recurrent and interdependent decisions over Product Sourcing, Listing and Pricing Control, Cash-Flow Management, and Mixed-Latency Feedback Adaptation. We introduce MerchantBench, a 365-day order-level simulation grounded in 98,843 real e-commerce product records and equipped with 26 tools for agent interaction. MerchantBench couples promptly observable Upstream Supplier Events with delayed Downstream Order Outcomes, requiring agents to follow individual order lifecycles and revisit earlier decisions. We evaluate eight LLMs under two agent frameworks in 48 runs, each spanning 365 simulated days. Our results reveal a substantial gap between even the latest LLMs and human participants, with the best LLM configuration attaining only 27.3\% of the mean final net assets achieved by human participants.

We develop a data-driven deep neural operator framework to approximate multiple output states for a diesel engine and generate real-time predictions with reasonable accuracy. As emission norms become more stringent, the need for fast and accurate models that enable analysis of system behavior have become an essential requirement for system development. The fast transient processes involved in the operation of a combustion engine make it difficult to develop accurate physics-based models for such systems. As an alternative to physics based models, we develop an operator-based regression model (DeepONet) to learn the relevant output states for a mean-value gas flow engine model using the engine operating conditions as input variables. We have adopted a mean-value model as a benchmark for comparison, simulated using Simulink. The developed approach necessitates using the initial conditions of the output states to predict the accurate sequence over the temporal domain. To this end, a sequence-to-sequence approach is embedded into the proposed framework. The accuracy of the model is evaluated by comparing the prediction output to ground truth generated from Simulink model. The maximum mathcal L_2 relative error observed was approximately 6.5%. The sensitivity of the DeepONet model is evaluated under simulated noise conditions and the model shows relatively low sensitivity to noise. The uncertainty in model prediction is further assessed by using a mean ensemble approach. The worst-case error at the (mu + 2sigma) boundary was found to be 12%. The proposed framework provides the ability to predict output states in real-time and enables data-driven learning of complex input-output operator mapping. As a result, this model can be applied during initial development stages, where accurate models may not be available.

Data scaling and standardized evaluation benchmarks have driven significant advances in natural language processing and computer vision. However, robotics faces unique challenges in scaling data and establishing evaluation protocols. Collecting real-world data is resource-intensive and inefficient, while benchmarking in real-world scenarios remains highly complex. Synthetic data and simulation offer promising alternatives, yet existing efforts often fall short in data quality, diversity, and benchmark standardization. To address these challenges, we introduce RoboVerse, a comprehensive framework comprising a simulation platform, a synthetic dataset, and unified benchmarks. Our simulation platform supports multiple simulators and robotic embodiments, enabling seamless transitions between different environments. The synthetic dataset, featuring high-fidelity physics and photorealistic rendering, is constructed through multiple approaches. Additionally, we propose unified benchmarks for imitation learning and reinforcement learning, enabling evaluation across different levels of generalization. At the core of the simulation platform is MetaSim, an infrastructure that abstracts diverse simulation environments into a universal interface. It restructures existing simulation environments into a simulator-agnostic configuration system, as well as an API aligning different simulator functionalities, such as launching simulation environments, loading assets with initial states, stepping the physics engine, etc. This abstraction ensures interoperability and extensibility. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that RoboVerse enhances the performance of imitation learning, reinforcement learning, world model learning, and sim-to-real transfer. These results validate the reliability of our dataset and benchmarks, establishing RoboVerse as a robust solution for advancing robot learning.

The estimation of loss distributions for dynamic portfolios requires the simulation of scenarios representing realistic joint dynamics of their components. We propose a novel data-driven approach for simulating realistic, high-dimensional multi-asset scenarios, focusing on accurately representing tail risk for a class of static and dynamic trading strategies. We exploit the joint elicitability property of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) to design a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) that learns to simulate price scenarios preserving these tail risk features. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithm on synthetic and market data sets through detailed numerical experiments. In contrast to previously proposed data-driven scenario generators, our proposed method correctly captures tail risk for a broad class of trading strategies and demonstrates strong generalization capabilities. In addition, combining our method with principal component analysis of the input data enhances its scalability to large-dimensional multi-asset time series, setting our framework apart from the univariate settings commonly considered in the literature.

Humans imagine scene changes under hypothetical motions, an ability central to spatial reasoning and robotic planning. However, this capability remains underexplored in vision-language models and world models. We formalize this capability as Counterfactual Spatial Imagination (CSI) and introduce FlowBench, a resource for training and evaluating both, with 428K training examples spanning simulated and real-world scenes, household environments and tabletop manipulation, and diverse question types. A scalable, fully automatic pipeline pairs each hypothetical motion with spatial questions and, in simulation, exact outcome frames and optical flow. For VLMs, proprietary models exhibit an imagination gap, performing worse when motion outcomes must be inferred than when observed, and open-source models perform near chance; fine-tuning Qwen3-VL-8B on FlowBench-Sim-Train raises its accuracy by 29.5 percentage points in simulation and 16.9 on real images, a strong sim-to-real transfer. For world models, training on FlowBench-Sim improves text-to-flow prediction for all four model families we test, raising the accuracy of Psi-0.6 from 52.1% to 61.7%. FlowBench thus serves as a training and evaluation resource for both. Code and datasets are released at https://github.com/liuyifan22/FlowBench.

Game engines provide real-time simulation, rendering, physics, interaction, networking, and asset pipelines, making them valuable not only for games but also for 3D applications in healthcare, robotics, architecture, manufacturing, and related domains. Because game development is where these systems are most mature and publicly available, it offers a practical testbed for evaluating coding agents that must modify C++ code within stateful, interactive, real-time systems. We present GameEngineBench, a benchmark for evaluating coding agents on scoped C++ implementation tasks inside Unreal Engine 5 projects, built from nine real-world game repositories. The evaluation set consists of 110 tasks spanning gameplay mechanics, multiplayer behavior, AI and world orchestration, animation and movement, UI and session code, loading behavior, online-service integration, persistence, data serialization, XR behavior, and rendering-oriented plugins. These tasks require models to make native C++ changes that compile and satisfy behavioral tests within executable Unreal Engine projects. Across twelve evaluated configurations, the strongest model reaches 55.5\% pass@1, while 31 tasks remain unsolved by every configuration. Our results demonstrate that frontier coding agents continue to struggle with deeply integrated C++ development for real-time interactive software, highlighting game-engine benchmarks as a valuable complement to existing software engineering evaluations.

Can Large Language Models (LLMs) simulate human behavior in complex environments? LLMs have recently been shown to exhibit advanced reasoning skills but much of NLP evaluation still relies on static benchmarks. Answering this requires evaluation environments that probe strategic reasoning in competitive, dynamic scenarios that involve long-term planning. We introduce AucArena, a novel simulation environment for evaluating LLMs within auctions, a setting chosen for being highly unpredictable and involving many skills related to resource and risk management, while also being easy to evaluate. We conduct several controlled simulations using state-of-the-art LLMs as bidding agents. We find that through simple prompting, LLMs do indeed demonstrate many of the skills needed for effectively engaging in auctions (e.g., managing budget, adhering to long-term goals and priorities), skills that we find can be sharpened by explicitly encouraging models to be adaptive and observe strategies in past auctions. These results are significant as they show the potential of using LLM agents to model intricate social dynamics, especially in competitive settings. However, we also observe considerable variability in the capabilities of individual LLMs. Notably, even our most advanced models (GPT-4) are occasionally surpassed by heuristic baselines and human agents, highlighting the potential for further improvements in the design of LLM agents and the important role that our simulation environment can play in further testing and refining agent architectures.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable potential as autonomous agents, approaching human-expert performance through advanced reasoning and tool orchestration. However, decision-making in fully dynamic and live environments remains highly challenging, requiring real-time information integration and adaptive responses. While existing efforts have explored live evaluation mechanisms in structured tasks, a critical gap remains in systematic benchmarking for real-world applications, particularly in finance where stringent requirements exist for live strategic responsiveness. To address this gap, we introduce AI-Trader, the first fully-automated, live, and data-uncontaminated evaluation benchmark for LLM agents in financial decision-making. AI-Trader spans three major financial markets: U.S. stocks, A-shares, and cryptocurrencies, with multiple trading granularities to simulate live financial environments. Our benchmark implements a revolutionary fully autonomous minimal information paradigm where agents receive only essential context and must independently search, verify, and synthesize live market information without human intervention. We evaluate six mainstream LLMs across three markets and multiple trading frequencies. Our analysis reveals striking findings: general intelligence does not automatically translate to effective trading capability, with most agents exhibiting poor returns and weak risk management. We demonstrate that risk control capability determines cross-market robustness, and that AI trading strategies achieve excess returns more readily in highly liquid markets than policy-driven environments. These findings expose critical limitations in current autonomous agents and provide clear directions for future improvements. The code and evaluation data are open-sourced to foster community research: https://github.com/HKUDS/AI-Trader.

The inherent non-stationarity of financial markets and the complexity of multi-modal information pose significant challenges to existing quantitative trading models. Traditional methods relying on fixed structures and unimodal data struggle to adapt to market regime shifts, while large language model (LLM)-driven solutions - despite their multi-modal comprehension - suffer from static strategies and homogeneous expert designs, lacking dynamic adjustment and fine-grained decision mechanisms. To address these limitations, we propose MM-DREX: a Multimodal-driven, Dynamically-Routed EXpert framework based on large language models. MM-DREX explicitly decouples market state perception from strategy execution to enable adaptive sequential decision-making in non-stationary environments. Specifically, it (1) introduces a vision-language model (VLM)-powered dynamic router that jointly analyzes candlestick chart patterns and long-term temporal features to allocate real-time expert weights; (2) designs four heterogeneous trading experts (trend, reversal, breakout, positioning) generating specialized fine-grained sub-strategies; and (3) proposes an SFT-RL hybrid training paradigm to synergistically optimize the router's market classification capability and experts' risk-adjusted decision-making. Extensive experiments on multi-modal datasets spanning stocks, futures, and cryptocurrencies demonstrate that MM-DREX significantly outperforms 15 baselines (including state-of-the-art financial LLMs and deep reinforcement learning models) across key metrics: total return, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown, validating its robustness and generalization. Additionally, an interpretability module traces routing logic and expert behavior in real time, providing an audit trail for strategy transparency.

LLMs are increasingly used as ``digital consumers'' to simulate public opinion, pre-test marketing decisions, and anticipate audience response. However, existing evaluations rarely ask whether a model can reconstruct the concrete reaction patterns that real consumers surface in public discourse. We introduce ConsumerSimBench, a benchmark built from 1,553 real Chinese social-media topics and 23,122 atomic, rule-audited criteria spanning four reaction families. Rather than scoring open-ended generations with a holistic preference judge, ConsumerSimBench decomposes each task into auditable yes-no decisions over concrete reaction points, raising three-judge agreement from 65.8% to 92.1% with 98.4% agreement between pointwise judge decisions and human-majority labels. Across 13 frontier generators, the strongest model, Gemini-3.1-Pro, covers only 47.8% of real reaction criteria, while GPT-5.2 and Claude-4.6 trail far behind despite their strength on technical benchmarks. The failures reveal a sharp gap between technical-benchmark performance and socially grounded consumer intuition. A direct structured reasoning prompt decreases coverage, while a generate--reflect multi-agent pipeline improves MiMo-V2.5-Pro from 32.9% to 37.6% on a subset. ConsumerSimBench reframes consumer simulation as a forecasting problem over real public-discourse reactions, showing that frontier LLMs remain far from reliably predicting what consumers will actually care about in high-context Chinese consumer discourse.

We investigated the use of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) combined with Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM), feature engineering and machine learning algorithms to optimize trading decisions. We used five, two, and one year samples of hourly candle data for GameStop, Tesla, and XRP (Ripple) markets respectively. Applying a 15 hour rolling window for each market, we collected several features based on a linear model and other classical features to predict the next hour's movement. Subsequently, a GMM filtering approach was used to identify clusters among these markets. For each cluster, we applied the EMD algorithm to extract high, medium, low and trend components from each feature collected. A simple thresholding algorithm was applied to classify market movements based on the percentage change in each market's close price. We then evaluated the performance of various machine learning models, including Random Forests (RF) and XGBoost, in classifying market movements. A naive random selection of trading decisions was used as a benchmark, which assumed equal probabilities for each outcome, and a temporal cross-validation approach was used to test models on 40%, 30%, and 20% of the dataset. Our results indicate that transforming selected features using EMD improves performance, particularly for ensemble learning algorithms like Random Forest and XGBoost, as measured by accumulated profit. Finally, GMM filtering expanded the range of learning algorithm and data source combinations that outperformed the top percentile of the random baseline.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is widely deployed to solve problems related to marketing attribution and budget optimization. However, AI models can be quite complex, and it can be difficult to understand model workings and insights without extensive implementation teams. In principle, recently developed large language models (LLMs), like GPT-4, can be deployed to provide marketing insights, reducing the time and effort required to make critical decisions. In practice, there are substantial challenges that need to be overcome to reliably use such models. We focus on domain-specific question-answering, SQL generation needed for data retrieval, and tabular analysis and show how a combination of semantic search, prompt engineering, and fine-tuning can be applied to dramatically improve the ability of LLMs to execute these tasks accurately. We compare both proprietary models, like GPT-4, and open-source models, like Llama-2-70b, as well as various embedding methods. These models are tested on sample use cases specific to marketing mix modeling and attribution.

Collecting computer use data from human demonstrations is expensive and slow, motivating the need for scalable generation strategies. This requires two key ingredients: environments in which agents can act and verifiers that can judge whether their demonstrations succeeded. We introduce FaraGen1.5, a scalable data pipeline for computer use agents composed of three modular components: environments, solvers, and verifiers. FaraGen1.5 uses both live websites and synthetic environments that faithfully simulate domains gated by authentication or that require irreversible actions. It employs a solver harness that can be powered by multiple models, including strong frontier models such as GPT-5.4, and also incorporates a user simulator to enable multi-turn rollouts. Finally, FaraGen1.5 scores the resulting trajectories with three complementary verifiers covering task correctness, efficiency, and critical-point adherence. Using data produced by this pipeline, we train Fara1.5, a family of native computer use agents (CUAs) at three scales built on Qwen3.5 (4B, 9B, and 27B). To train these models, we employ a supervised finetuning (SFT) recipe that carefully balances data from FaraGen1.5 for broad coverage, specific high-value tasks, and target model deficiencies in an iterative approach. Each model sets a new state of the art for its size class on browser-use benchmarks: Fara1.5-9B reaches 63.4% on Online-Mind2Web and 86.6% on WebVoyager, while Fara1.5-27B achieves 72.3% on Online-Mind2Web, which is competitive with much larger proprietary systems.

Grid edge resources refer to distributed energy resources (DERs) located on the consumer side of the electrical grid, controlled by consumers rather than utility companies. Integrating DERs with real-time electricity pricing can better align distributed supply with system demand, improving grid efficiency and reliability. However, DER owners, known as prosumers, often lack the expertise and resources to directly participate in wholesale energy markets, limiting their ability to fully realize the economic potential of their assets. Meanwhile, as DER adoption grows, the number of prosumers participating in the energy system is expected to increase significantly, creating additional challenges in coordination and market participation. To address these challenges, we propose a mean-field game framework that enables prosumers to autonomously learn optimal decision policies based on dynamic market prices and their variable solar generation. Our framework is designed to accommodate heterogeneous agents and demonstrates the existence of a mean-field equilibrium (MFE) in a wholesale energy market with many prosumers. Additionally, we introduce an algorithm that automates prosumers' resource control, facilitating real-time decision-making for energy storage management. Numerical experiments suggest that our approach converges towards an MFE and effectively reduces peak loads and price volatility, especially during periods of external demand or supply shocks. This study highlights the potential of a fully decentralized approach to integrating DERs into wholesale markets while improving market efficiency.

In this paper we develop a model of an order-driven market where traders set bids and asks and post market or limit orders according to exogenously fixed rules. Agents are assumed to have three components to the expectation of future asset returns, namely-fundamentalist, chartist and noise trader. Furthermore agents differ in the characteristics describing these components, such as time horizon, risk aversion and the weights given to the various components. The model developed here extends a great deal of earlier literature in that the order submissions of agents are determined by utility maximisation, rather than the mechanical unit order size that is commonly assumed. In this way the order flow is better related to the ongoing evolution of the market. For the given market structure we analyze the impact of the three components of the trading strategies on the statistical properties of prices and order flows and observe that it is the chartist strategy that is mainly responsible of the fat tails and clustering in the artificial price data generated by the model. The paper provides further evidence that large price changes are likely to be generated by the presence of large gaps in the book.

Simulation-based optimization is a widely used method to solve stochastic optimization problems. This method aims to identify an optimal solution by maximizing the expected value of the objective function. However, due to its computational complexity, the function cannot be accurately evaluated directly, hence it is estimated through simulation. Exploiting the enhanced efficiency of Quantum Amplitude Estimation (QAE) compared to classical Monte Carlo simulation, it frequently outpaces classical simulation-based optimization, resulting in notable performance enhancements in various scenarios. In this work, we make use of a quantum-enhanced algorithm for simulation-based optimization and apply it to solve a variant of the classical Newsvendor problem which is known to be NP-hard. Such problems provide the building block for supply chain management, particularly in inventory management and procurement optimization under risks and uncertainty

Agents are starting to sell to other agents. Seller agents write the listings of tools, services and products, and buyer agents read these listings when they choose what to use. We show that seller agents told only to be selected more often practice generative engine optimization on their own, and that this distorts the market for sellers and for buyers. We build tool markets from real data tools on Amazon and Instagram and run every tool on every question, so we know which tools can answer each question. Under all five production models we test, sellers rewrite their descriptions to claim more and more fields, including fields that their tools return for fewer than half of the targets. We call this process toolflation. Nothing in the market limits it, and how far it goes depends on the model, as the number of claims that contradict the sellers' own evidence differs by an order of magnitude between models. Toolflation shifts the buyers' choices between sellers, and the most capable tool loses share in seven of the ten combinations of seller model and platform. Under four models, the choices stay with capable tools and buyer agents keep their task success. Under the fifth, sellers copy one another until the descriptions no longer tell the tools apart. Buyer agents then pick tools by their position in the list, tools that answer almost nothing win a quarter to two fifths of the choices, and task success falls from 89% to about 30% on Amazon, close to random choice, and from 77% to 40% on Instagram. The sellers did only what their vendors asked, and the cost fell on buyers they never dealt with. We therefore argue that honesty toward third parties under competition is part of safety alignment, and that models should be tested as sellers before they are deployed as sellers.

The application of LLM-based agents in financial investment has shown significant promise, yet existing approaches often require intermediate steps like predicting individual stock movements or rely on predefined, static workflows. These limitations restrict their adaptability and effectiveness in constructing optimal portfolios. In this paper, we introduce the Multi-Agent Scaling Simulation (MASS), a novel framework that leverages multi-agent simulation for direct, end-to-end portfolio construction. At its core, MASS employs a backward optimization process to dynamically learn the optimal distribution of heterogeneous agents, enabling the system to adapt to evolving market regimes. A key finding enabled by our framework is the exploration of the scaling effect for portfolio construction: we demonstrate that as the number of agents increases exponentially (up to 512), the aggregated decisions yield progressively higher excess returns. Extensive experiments on a challenging, self-collected dataset from the 2023 Chinese A-share market show that MASS consistently outperforms seven state-of-the-art baselines. Further backtesting, stability analyses and the experiment on data leakage concerns validate its enhanced profitability and robustness. We have open-sourced our code, dataset, and training snapshots at https://github.com/gta0804/MASS/ to foster further research.

Predictive model design for accurately predicting future stock prices has always been considered an interesting and challenging research problem. The task becomes complex due to the volatile and stochastic nature of the stock prices in the real world which is affected by numerous controllable and uncontrollable variables. This paper presents an optimized predictive model built on long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) architecture for automatically extracting past stock prices from the web over a specified time interval and predicting their future prices for a specified forecast horizon, and forecasts the future stock prices. The model is deployed for making buy and sell transactions based on its predicted results for 70 important stocks from seven different sectors listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The profitability of each sector is derived based on the total profit yielded by the stocks in that sector over a period from Jan 1, 2010 to Aug 26, 2021. The sectors are compared based on their profitability values. The prediction accuracy of the model is also evaluated for each sector. The results indicate that the model is highly accurate in predicting future stock prices.

This script offers an implementation-oriented introduction to deep learning methods for solving and estimating high-dimensional dynamic stochastic models in economics and finance. Its starting point is the curse of dimensionality: heterogeneous-agent economies, overlapping-generations models with aggregate risk, continuous-time models with occasionally binding constraints, climate-economy models, and macro-finance environments with many assets and frictions generate state and parameter spaces that strain classical tensor-product grid methods. The exposition is organized around four complementary methodologies. Deep Equilibrium Nets embed discrete-time equilibrium conditions into neural-network loss functions. Physics-Informed Neural Networks approximate continuous-time Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman, Kolmogorov forward, and related partial differential equations. Deep surrogate models provide fast, differentiable approximations to expensive structural models, while Gaussian processes add a probabilistic layer that quantifies approximation uncertainty; together they support estimation, sensitivity analysis, and constrained policy design. Gaussian-process-based dynamic programming, combined with active learning and dimension reduction, extends value-function iteration to very large continuous state spaces. Applications span representative-agent and international real business cycle models, overlapping-generations and heterogeneous-agent economies, continuous-time macro-finance, structural estimation by simulated method of moments, and climate economics under uncertainty. Companion notebooks in TensorFlow and PyTorch invite hands-on experimentation. These notes are a deliberately subjective and inevitably incomplete snapshot of a rapidly evolving field, aimed at equipping PhD students and researchers to engage with this frontier hands-on.

Graphical User Interface (GUI) agents show strong capabilities for automating web tasks, but existing interactive benchmarks primarily target benign, predictable consumer environments. Their effectiveness in high-stakes, investigative domains such as authentic e-commerce risk management remains underexplored. To bridge this gap, we present RiskWebWorld, the first highly realistic interactive benchmark for evaluating GUI agents in e-commerce risk management. RiskWebWorld features 1,513 tasks sourced from production risk-control pipelines across 8 core domains, and captures the authentic challenges of risk operations on uncooperative websites, partially environmental hijackments. To support scalable evaluation and agentic reinforcement learning (RL), we further build a Gymnasium-compliant infrastructure that decouples policy planning from environment mechanics. Our evaluation across diverse models reveals a dramatic capability gap: top-tier generalist models achieve 49.1% success, while specialized open-weights GUI models lag at near-total failure. This highlights that foundation model scale currently matters more than zero-shot interface grounding in long-horizon professional tasks. We also demonstrate the viability of our infrastructure through agentic RL, which improves open-source models by 16.2%. These results position RiskWebWorld as a practical testbed for developing robust digital workers.

Existing Simulink benchmarks mainly evaluate whether generated models compile, execute, or resemble a reference model. These criteria do not establish whether a model satisfies its engineering requirements. We introduce SimuVerity, a benchmark of 101 text-to-executable Simulink model-generation tasks across ten engineering domains. For each task, executable-system profiles ground the engineering specification and four families of native simulation scenarios. A hierarchical evaluator first checks artifact delivery, native executability, and engineering qualification, then scores qualified models across six dimensions covering accuracy, output quality, mechanistic fidelity, control and causal integrity, operating-domain robustness, and dynamic response. We evaluate six agent systems with SimuVerity. The best system achieves an overall score of only 42.86. The results show that structural similarity is a poor proxy for engineering performance: capability bottlenecks arise both in producing qualified implementations and in satisfying multidimensional requirements after qualification. Meanwhile, some high-scoring models still exhibit severe visual-layout disorder. SimuVerity provides a systematic basis for assessing agents' engineering capabilities and diagnosing failures in executable Simulink model generation.

Reinforcement learning has demonstrated great potential for performing financial tasks. However, it faces two major challenges: policy instability and sampling bottlenecks. In this paper, we revisit ensemble methods with massively parallel simulations on graphics processing units (GPUs), significantly enhancing the computational efficiency and robustness of trained models in volatile financial markets. Our approach leverages the parallel processing capability of GPUs to significantly improve the sampling speed for training ensemble models. The ensemble models combine the strengths of component agents to improve the robustness of financial decision-making strategies. We conduct experiments in both stock and cryptocurrency trading tasks to evaluate the effectiveness of our approach. Massively parallel simulation on a single GPU improves the sampling speed by up to 1,746times using 2,048 parallel environments compared to a single environment. The ensemble models have high cumulative returns and outperform some individual agents, reducing maximum drawdown by up to 4.17% and improving the Sharpe ratio by up to 0.21. This paper describes trading tasks at ACM ICAIF FinRL Contests in 2023 and 2024.

Trader-facing dynamic fees are increasingly proposed for automated market makers (AMMs), but historical data do not identify how order flow would respond: trader-facing fees do not vary, trader types are latent, and a replayed tape is not a sequential decision environment. We therefore construct a minimal closed-loop simulator in which the missing signal exists by construction: two constant-product pools repriced by an equilibrium-inspired dynamic-fee rule, fee-sensitive noise flow, and closed-form CEX--AMM arbitrage. Equilibrium is used as a closure principle, not as an object the trader learns. Against a tuned benchmark ladder of schedule, planning, lookahead, and tabular policies, a small DQN is the only evaluated valid policy whose paired improvement over tuned one-step routing excludes zero. On a reserved final block of 1{,}000 seeds with completion forced to 1.0 for every policy, it reduces implementation shortfall under every tested intra-step ordering, by 13.3bps of order notional under the pre-specified agent-last ordering, and the edge is concentrated in, and learned from, dynamic-fee environments: under constant fees the paired difference is indistinguishable from zero. The result is model-conditioned counterfactual evidence about execution control in AMMs, not evidence about historical traders, equilibrium play, or deployable profit.

MarketSenseAI is a novel framework for holistic stock analysis which leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to process financial news, historical prices, company fundamentals and the macroeconomic environment to support decision making in stock analysis and selection. In this paper, we present the latest advancements on MarketSenseAI, driven by rapid technological expansion in LLMs. Through a novel architecture combining Retrieval-Augmented Generation and LLM agents, the framework processes SEC filings and earnings calls, while enriching macroeconomic analysis through systematic processing of diverse institutional reports. We demonstrate a significant improvement in fundamental analysis accuracy over the previous version. Empirical evaluation on S\&P 100 stocks over two years (2023-2024) shows MarketSenseAI achieving cumulative returns of 125.9% compared to the index return of 73.5%, while maintaining comparable risk profiles. Further validation on S\&P 500 stocks during 2024 demonstrates the framework's scalability, delivering a 33.8% higher Sortino ratio than the market. This work marks a significant advancement in applying LLM technology to financial analysis, offering insights into the robustness of LLM-driven investment strategies.